科學(xué)家認(rèn)為氣候變化只要各國(guó)努力還在可控范圍之內(nèi)

科學(xué)家認(rèn)為氣候變化只要各國(guó)努力還在可控范圍之內(nèi)

Scientists believe that climate change is still controllable as long as countries make efforts

文/段躍初

Author: Duan yuechu

全球氣候變暖會(huì)導(dǎo)致海平面上升，使降水重新分布，從而改變當(dāng)前的世界氣候格局；其次，全球氣候變暖影響和破壞了生物鏈、食物鏈，帶來(lái)更為嚴(yán)重的自然惡果。氣候變暖使大陸地區(qū)，尤其是中高緯度地區(qū)降水增加，非洲等一些地區(qū)降水減少。有些地區(qū)極端天氣氣候事件（厄爾尼諾、干旱、洪澇、雷暴、冰雹、風(fēng)暴、高溫天氣和沙塵暴等）出現(xiàn)的頻率與強(qiáng)度增加全球氣溫變化直接影響全球的水循環(huán)，使某些地區(qū)出現(xiàn)旱災(zāi)或洪災(zāi)，導(dǎo)致農(nóng)作物減產(chǎn)。

Global warming will lead to the rise of sea level and the redistribution of precipitation, thus changing the current world climate pattern; Secondly, global warming has affected and destroyed the biological chain and food chain, bringing more serious natural consequences. Climate warming has increased precipitation in the continent, especially in the middle and high latitudes, and decreased precipitation in some areas such as Africa. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events (El Ni ñ o, drought, flood, thunderstorm, hail, storm, high temperature weather and dust storm, etc.) in some areas have increased, and the global temperature change has a direct impact on the global water cycle, resulting in drought or flood in some areas, resulting in crop yield reduction.

氣候變化的致命后果在今年變得更加明顯，創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的熱浪、洪水和野火奪走了風(fēng)千人的生命，也使我們的救災(zāi)人員的能力受到了限制。聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候小組早期的高端排放情景（稱(chēng)為RCP 8.5）發(fā)現(xiàn)，到2100年，全球氣溫可能上升5°C以上。

The deadly consequences of climate change have become more obvious this year. Record heat waves, floods and wildfires have claimed thousands of lives and limited the capacity of our disaster relief personnel. The early high-end emission scenario of the United Nations Climate Panel (called RCP 8.5) found that the global temperature may rise by more than 5 ° C by 2100.

鑒于日益嚴(yán)格的氣候政策以及太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能成本的直線(xiàn)下降，我們即將見(jiàn)證可再生能源發(fā)展的絕對(duì)繁榮。過(guò)去以低估可再生能源增長(zhǎng)而聞名的國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)現(xiàn)在表示，到2026年，全球產(chǎn)能將增長(zhǎng)60%以上。屆時(shí)，太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)能、水力發(fā)電大壩和其他可再生能源設(shè)施將與化石燃料和核電站的全球產(chǎn)能相匹敵。

In view of increasingly stringent climate policies and the sharp decline in the cost of solar and wind energy, we are about to witness the absolute prosperity of renewable energy development. The International Energy Agency, which used to be famous for underestimating the growth of renewable energy, now says that global production capacity will increase by more than 60% by 2026. By then, solar, wind, hydroelectric dams and other renewable energy facilities will rival the global capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear power plants.

多年來(lái)一直以低于個(gè)位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)的新型電動(dòng)汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量也在迅速增長(zhǎng)。據(jù)BloombergNEF稱(chēng)，隨著汽車(chē)制造商推出更多車(chē)型以及政府制定越來(lái)越激進(jìn)的政策，今年汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量將達(dá)到560萬(wàn)輛左右，比2020年的數(shù)字增長(zhǎng)80%以上。電動(dòng)汽車(chē)從2019上半年的2.8%的銷(xiāo)量增長(zhǎng)到了2021上半年的7%，在中國(guó)和歐洲的漲幅尤其大。該研究公司預(yù)計(jì)，到2030年，零排放汽車(chē)將占所有新購(gòu)車(chē)量的近30%。與此同時(shí)，有很多技術(shù)進(jìn)步的跡象。研究人員和公司正在尋找生產(chǎn)無(wú)碳鋼和水泥的方法。以植物為基礎(chǔ)的肉類(lèi)替代品比任何人預(yù)期的更快變得更美味、更受歡迎。企業(yè)正在建造越來(lái)越大的工廠來(lái)吸收空氣中的二氧化碳。根據(jù)PitchBook的數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)氣候和清潔技術(shù)初創(chuàng)公司的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本投資達(dá)到了前所未有的水平，截至第三季度，投資總額超過(guò)300億美元。這里有一個(gè)重要且違反直覺(jué)的發(fā)現(xiàn)：雖然危險(xiǎn)的極端天氣事件變得越來(lái)越普遍或嚴(yán)重，但世界似乎在讓人們遠(yuǎn)離這些事件方面變得更加安全。近幾十年來(lái)，自然災(zāi)害造成的平均死亡人數(shù)普遍急劇下降。“我們有更好的技術(shù)來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)風(fēng)暴、野火和洪水；有更好的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施來(lái)保護(hù)我們自己；有更好的網(wǎng)絡(luò)在災(zāi)難發(fā)生時(shí)進(jìn)行合作和恢復(fù)，”

Sales of new electric vehicles, which have been growing below single digits for many years, are also growing rapidly. According to Bloomberg Nef, as carmakers launch more models and the government formulates more and more radical policies, car sales will reach about 5.6 million this year, an increase of more than 80% over the figure in 2020. The sales volume of electric vehicles increased from 2.8% in the first half of 2019 to 7% in the first half of 2021, especially in China and Europe. The research company predicts that zero emission vehicles will account for nearly 30% of all new car purchases by 2030. At the same time, there are many signs of technological progress. Researchers and companies are looking for ways to produce non carbon steel and cement. Plant based meat substitutes become more delicious and popular faster than anyone expected. Enterprises are building larger and larger factories to absorb carbon dioxide from the air. According to pitchbook, venture capital investment in climate and clean technology startups reached an unprecedented level, with a total investment of more than $30 billion as of the third quarter. Here is an important and counterintuitive finding: although dangerous extreme weather events are becoming more and more common or serious, the world seems to be safer in keeping people away from these events. In recent decades, the average death toll caused by natural disasters has generally decreased sharply. "We have better technology to predict storms, wildfires and floods; better infrastructure to protect ourselves; and better networks to cooperate and recover in the event of a disaster."

美聯(lián)社消息稱(chēng)：數(shù)據(jù)世界研究負(fù)責(zé)人漢娜·里奇（Hannah Ritchie）在英國(guó)《連線(xiàn)》雜志中最近一篇的文章中引用了她自己的研究指出。通過(guò)對(duì)社會(huì)環(huán)境、海洋環(huán)境、陸地環(huán)境、生產(chǎn)制造環(huán)境等氣候適應(yīng)措施的正確投資，我們有能力應(yīng)對(duì)我們將面臨的一些的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。然而，排放溫室氣體最多的富國(guó)必須提供財(cái)政援助，幫助窮國(guó)加強(qiáng)防御。向天然氣、太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能以及越來(lái)越多的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的轉(zhuǎn)變都得到了每個(gè)國(guó)家的政府的支持，包括貸款、補(bǔ)貼和其他將基礎(chǔ)技術(shù)推向市場(chǎng)的政策。而業(yè)務(wù)驅(qū)動(dòng)的擴(kuò)展過(guò)程迅速降低了這些技術(shù)的成本，幫助它們變得更具吸引力。越來(lái)越具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和商業(yè)友好性的清潔替代品有望簡(jiǎn)化進(jìn)一步氣候行動(dòng)的政治。如果越來(lái)越多的國(guó)家制定越來(lái)越激進(jìn)的碳稅政策、清潔能源標(biāo)準(zhǔn)或?yàn)檠芯亢褪痉俄?xiàng)目提供更多資金，我們將更快地降低排放。

According to the associated press, Hannah Ritchie, head of data world research, cited her own research in a recent article in Wired magazine. Through the correct investment in climate adaptation measures such as social environment, marine environment, land environment and production and manufacturing environment, we have the ability to deal with some of the risks we will face. However, the rich countries that emit the most greenhouse gases must provide financial assistance to help poor countries strengthen their defenses. The shift to natural gas, solar and wind energy and more and more electric vehicles is supported by the government of each country, including loans, subsidies and other policies to bring basic technologies to the market. The business driven expansion process quickly reduces the cost of these technologies and helps them become more attractive. Increasingly competitive and business friendly clean alternatives are expected to simplify the politics of further climate action. If more and more countries formulate more and more radical carbon tax policies, clean energy standards or provide more funds for research and demonstration projects, we will reduce emissions faster.

在蘇格蘭格拉斯哥聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化大會(huì)（COP26）為全球社會(huì)提供了拯救自己的絕佳機(jī)會(huì)。每個(gè)國(guó)家都將提交其國(guó)家定義貢獻(xiàn)（NDC）或減少導(dǎo)致全球變暖的溫室氣體排放量的計(jì)劃。如果這些計(jì)劃達(dá)到必要的目標(biāo)，人類(lèi)可以將全球氣溫上升限制在1.5攝氏度，避免最壞的氣候狀況。在地球日領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人峰會(huì)期間，拜登政府宣布了一項(xiàng)雄心勃勃的改革計(jì)劃，到2030年將溫室氣體排放量比2005年減少50%。拜登的重建更好議程（包括人類(lèi)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和氣候計(jì)劃）的通過(guò)對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)至關(guān)重要。拜登還闡述了以氣候危機(jī)為中心的“中產(chǎn)階級(jí)”新外交政策。拜登政府認(rèn)為氣候危機(jī)是主要的國(guó)家安全威脅，外交政策是國(guó)內(nèi)政策的延伸。全球合作和人類(lèi)團(tuán)結(jié)對(duì)于減少溫室氣體排放、援助全球南方脆弱和資源匱乏的國(guó)家以及應(yīng)對(duì)日益嚴(yán)重的氣候難民危機(jī)至關(guān)重要。預(yù)計(jì)到2050年，這場(chǎng)危機(jī)將惠及2億人。

In Glasgow, Scotland, the United Nations Climate Change Conference (cop26) provides a great opportunity for the global community to save itself. Each country will submit its national defined contribution (NDC) or plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions leading to global warming. If these plans achieve the necessary goals, mankind can limit the rise of global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid the worst climate conditions. During the Earth Day leaders' summit, the Biden administration announced an ambitious reform plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 compared with 2005. The adoption of Biden's agenda for better reconstruction, including human infrastructure and climate plans, is crucial to achieving this goal. Biden also elaborated on the new "middle class" foreign policy centered on the climate crisis. The Biden administration believes that the climate crisis is a major national security threat, and foreign policy is an extension of domestic policy. Global cooperation and human solidarity are essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, assisting fragile and resource poor countries in the global South and responding to the growing climate refugee crisis. It is expected that by 2050, the crisis will benefit 200 million people.

毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，如果人類(lèi)要拯救自己和自然，世界上兩個(gè)最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體和溫室氣體排放國(guó)——美國(guó)和中國(guó)——之間的合作至關(guān)重要，在氣候問(wèn)題上的合作和在其他地方的對(duì)抗，很難想象這兩者是如何可能同時(shí)存在的，特別是在生存性氣候危機(jī)日益加劇的情況下。這突出了在這個(gè)關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻可能爆發(fā)的新“冷戰(zhàn)”所固有的危險(xiǎn)。

There is no doubt that if mankind wants to save itself and nature, the cooperation between the world's two largest economies and greenhouse gas emitters - the United States and China - is very important. It is difficult to imagine how the two can exist at the same time, especially in the context of the increasing survival climate crisis. This highlights the inherent danger of a new "cold war" that may break out at this critical moment.

所以，我們需要更積極的壓力和更積極的氣候政策來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的威脅。但歸根結(jié)底，我們必須發(fā)明并構(gòu)建解決問(wèn)題的方法。

Therefore, we need more active pressure and more active climate policies to deal with the threat of climate change. But in the final analysis, we must invent and build solutions to problems.

作者是北京中國(guó)未來(lái)研究會(huì)會(huì)員。

The author is a member of Beijing China Future Research Association.

作者姓名：段躍初 Duan Yuechu